Deep Stock Representation Learning: From Candlestick Charts to Investment Decisions
Deep Stock Representation Learning: From Candlestick Charts to Investment Decisions
This paper presents a deep learning-based investment decision strategy that transforms raw stock price time series into candlestick chart images, which are then processed by a Convolutional AutoEncoder (CAE) to learn compact, nonlinear feature representations. The learned features capture semantic information such as industrial sector and address limitations of traditional similarity measures like linearity, long data requirements, and lack of translation invariance. Using these features, the method applies modularity optimization to cluster stocks into diverse groups without predefining the number of clusters, ensuring deterministic and data-driven market segmentation. Portfolios are constructed by selecting the stock with the highest Sharpe ratio from each cluster and allocating equal weight to each selected stock.
Experimental evaluation on FTSE 100 data over 4000 trading days demonstrates that the deep feature-based approach significantly outperforms raw time series features and alternative clustering methods like k-means. The proposed strategy achieves a total return of 283.5% over the long term, surpassing the FTSE 100 index and several well-known funds (e.g., CCA, VXX, IEO, PXE, PXI) in total return, daily Sharpe ratio, and other risk-adjusted metrics. The method also shows robustness across different market conditions, including bearish, flat, and bullish periods. The work contributes a novel deep learning signal for portfolio optimization and highlights the effectiveness of combining visual representation learning with modularity-based clustering for investment decisions.
Highlights
- 1Proposes a novel investment decision strategy using deep learning to convert candlestick charts into stock representations.
- 2Introduces Convolutional AutoEncoder (CAE) for unsupervised feature learning from synthetic candlestick chart images.
- 3Adapts modularity optimization for stock clustering to achieve data-driven market segmentation without predefining cluster numbers.
- 4Constructs portfolios by selecting top Sharpe ratio stocks from each cluster, achieving high returns and low risk.
- 5Outperforms FTSE 100 index and several well-known funds over 2000 trading days in total return and Sharpe ratio.
Methods
- MConvolutional AutoEncoder (CAE) for learning 512-dimensional features from candlestick chart images.
- MModularity optimization for clustering stocks based on cosine similarity of deep features.
- MPortfolio construction by selecting stocks with highest Sharpe ratio within each cluster and equal fund allocation.
- MBacktesting with rolling 20-day training and 10-day holding periods on FTSE 100 data.
Results
- RDeep features capture semantic information, as shown by t-SNE visualization clustering stocks by industrial sector.
- RDeep feature + modularity clustering (D-M) achieves 283.5% total return vs 208.8% for raw time series + modularity (R-M).
- RD-M outperforms deep feature + k-means (D-K) in total return (283.5% vs 272.6%) and daily Sharpe ratio (0.50 vs 0.49).
- RPortfolio achieves 215.4% total return over 2000 trading days, outperforming funds like CCA (117.0%) and PXI (152.2%).
- RHighest daily Sharpe ratio (0.8) among compared funds, with max drawdown of -30.9% (second lowest).
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