Deep Partial Least Squares for Empirical Asset Pricing

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Deep Partial Least Squares for Empirical Asset Pricing

Matthew F. Dixon
Nicholas G. Polson
Kemen Goicoechea
Published on 6/20/2022
Equities
Stocks
United States (US)
Machine learning
Deep learning
Factor investing
Asset class picking
Risk management

The paper introduces Deep Partial Least Squares (DPLS) for empirical asset pricing, a novel methodology that combines partial least squares (PLS) with deep learning to estimate non-linear factor models. DPLS addresses the limitation of traditional linear factor models by capturing non-linear risk factor structure, which arises when asset returns and factors are non-Gaussian. The method uses PLS to project both firm characteristics and asset returns onto a small set of latent factors, maximizing covariance between them. Then, a deep neural network learns the non-linear mapping from factor loadings to returns, enabling the model to capture interaction effects and higher-order terms. This approach advances deep learning in asset pricing by moving beyond linear stochastic discount factors and Gaussian assumptions.

Empirically, the DPLS factor model is applied to monthly returns and firm characteristics of 3290 Russell 1000 stocks from December 1989 to January 2018. The model demonstrates superior predictive performance compared to LASSO and plain deep learning, achieving information ratios approximately 1.2 times greater. Additionally, DPLS reduces network training times due to its more parsimonious architecture, as PLS effectively reduces dimensionality. The model also provides interpretability by identifying the most important latent factors and firm characteristics, and by characterizing anomalies through both linear risk exposures and interaction effects. Overall, DPLS offers a powerful and interpretable framework for empirical asset pricing that balances predictive accuracy with economic theory.

Highlights

  • 1Introduces deep partial least squares (DPLS) for non-linear factor modeling in empirical asset pricing, capturing non-linear risk factor structure.
  • 2Resolves non-linear factor structure by jointly projecting firm characteristics and returns onto latent factors via PLS, then using deep learning to model non-linear map from loadings to returns.
  • 3Demonstrates superior out-of-sample performance over LASSO and plain deep learning, with information ratios approximately 1.2x greater.
  • 4Provides economic interpretability by identifying prominent latent factors and firm characteristics, and characterizing anomalies via both linear risk exposure and interaction effects.
  • 5Reduces network training times due to parsimonious architecture enabled by PLS projection.

Methods

  • M
    Deep Partial Least Squares (DPLS): Combines PLS for supervised dimension reduction with deep neural networks for non-linear regression.
  • M
    Projected Least Squares: Jointly projects predictors (firm characteristics) and responses (returns) onto a subspace of latent factors to maximize covariance.
  • M
    Period-by-period cross-sectional modeling: Trains model each period using only current data, avoiding stationarity assumptions.
  • M
    Non-linear stochastic discount factor framework: Models non-linear relationship between factors and returns, relaxing Gaussian assumptions.

Results

  • R
    DPLS factor model generates information ratios approximately 1.2x greater than pure deep learning models.
  • R
    Outperforms LASSO and plain vanilla deep learning in predicting individual stock returns for Russell 1000 index (3290 assets, 1989-2018).
  • R
    Captures non-linear risk factor structure, including interaction effects and higher-order terms, improving characterization of anomalies.
  • R
    Network training times are significantly reduced due to more parsimonious architecture from PLS projection.
  • R
    Identifies most prominent latent factors and firm characteristics, providing economic interpretability.
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