Analysis of Realized Volatility in Two Trading Sessions of the Japanese Stock Market
Analysis of Realized Volatility in Two Trading Sessions of the Japanese Stock Market
This paper analyzes realized volatility in the Japanese stock market by separately computing measures for the morning and afternoon trading sessions, avoiding the non-trading hours issue that complicates daily volatility estimation. Using high-frequency data for five liquid stocks from 2006 to 2009, the authors construct volatility signature plots to quantify microstructure noise bias as a function of sampling frequency. They find that bias is substantial at 5-minute sampling, especially in the afternoon session, and correct for it when examining standardized returns. Under the mixture of distributions hypothesis (MDH), standardized returns should have variance 1 and kurtosis 3. After bias correction, the standardized returns in both sessions exhibit variance close to 1 and kurtosis near 3, and the Anderson-Darling test does not reject normality. Additionally, absolute standardized returns show no significant autocorrelation, further supporting the MDH. The study concludes that price dynamics on the Tokyo Stock Exchange are consistent with the MDH, though slight deviations in variance and kurtosis suggest potential influences from jumps or other factors not captured by the simple diffusion model.
Highlights
- 1Proposes separate realized volatility measures for morning and afternoon trading sessions to avoid non-trading hours bias.
- 2Quantifies microstructure noise bias in realized volatility as a function of sampling frequency using volatility signature plots.
- 3Demonstrates that bias-corrected standardized returns have variance close to 1 and kurtosis near 3, supporting the mixture of distributions hypothesis (MDH).
- 4Shows that absolute standardized returns exhibit no significant autocorrelation, consistent with MDH predictions.
Methods
- MRealized volatility computed from high-frequency intraday returns at various sampling frequencies.
- MVolatility signature plots to visualize and fit microstructure noise bias using the model a0(1 + a1/Δ).
- MBias correction of standardized return variance using estimated bias at 5-minute sampling frequency.
- MAnderson-Darling normality test and autocorrelation function analysis for standardized returns.
Results
- RMicrostructure noise bias is larger in the afternoon session than in the morning session, exceeding 30% for some stocks at 5-minute sampling.
- RStandard deviations of standardized returns are slightly below 1 but become close to 1 after bias correction (e.g., 0.977 for Mitsubishi in MS).
- RKurtoses of standardized returns are near 3 (e.g., 2.75–2.79 in MS, 2.91–3.21 in AS), supporting normality.
- RAutocorrelation of absolute standardized returns falls within 95% confidence limits, unlike raw absolute returns.
- RAnderson-Darling test does not reject normality for standardized returns in both sessions.
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