MDGNN: Multi-Relational Dynamic Graph Neural Network for Comprehensive and Dynamic Stock Investment Prediction

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MDGNN: Multi-Relational Dynamic Graph Neural Network for Comprehensive and Dynamic Stock Investment Prediction

Hao Qian
Hongting Zhou
Qian Zhao
Hao Chen
Hongxiang Yao
Jingwei Wang
Ziqi Liu
Fei Yu
Zhiqiang Zhang
Jun Zhou
Published on 1/19/2024
Equities
Stocks
Machine learning
Deep learning
Stock picking
Alternative data
Sentiment

The paper introduces MDGNN, a novel framework for stock investment prediction that addresses two key challenges: the multifaceted nature of stock relations and their temporal evolution. MDGNN constructs a discrete dynamic graph where each daily snapshot is a multi-relational graph containing nodes for stocks, industries, and investment banks, with edges representing diverse relations such as industry membership, investment bank activities, and stock-stock correlations. A hierarchical multi-relational graph embedding layer uses attention mechanisms to aggregate information from multiple meta-paths, capturing both local and global dependencies. To model temporal dynamics, a Transformer-based layer with relative position bias (ALIBI) encodes the evolution of node representations across time, emphasizing recent events. The model is trained end-to-end to predict stock returns relative to a benchmark index.

Extensive experiments on CSI100 and CSI300 datasets demonstrate that MDGNN consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods, including traditional time series models (MLP, LSTM, Transformer), static graph neural networks (GCN, GAT), heterogeneous graph models (RGCN, HAN, HGT), and dynamic graph models (EvolveGCN, HTGNN). The improvements are particularly notable on the larger CSI300 dataset, where MDGNN achieves an IC of 0.0322, IR of 0.2488, CR of 0.9828, and Precision@30 of 0.5232. Ablation studies confirm the importance of each relation type and the temporal component. The work provides a comprehensive solution for modeling complex, evolving stock market relationships, offering both predictive performance and interpretability through attention weights.

Highlights

  • 1Proposes MDGNN, a multi-relational dynamic graph neural network for stock investment prediction that captures multifaceted relations (industry, investment bank, stock) and their temporal evolution.
  • 2Introduces a discrete dynamic graph framework with daily graph snapshots, using a hierarchical multi-relational graph embedding layer with attention to aggregate information from multiple meta-paths.
  • 3Leverages a Transformer-based temporal extraction layer with relative position bias (ALIBI) to model the evolving dependencies among graph snapshots over time.
  • 4Achieves state-of-the-art performance on CSI100 and CSI300 datasets, outperforming traditional time series models, static GNNs, and dynamic GNNs across IC, IR, CR, and Precision@30 metrics.

Methods

  • M
    Multi-relational graph construction integrating industry, investment bank, and stock-stock relations with edge features encoding supply, demand, competition, and regulatory connections.
  • M
    Hierarchical multi-relational graph embedding layer using multi-head graph attention (GAT) on meta-paths (e.g., Stock-Stock, Stock-Bank-Stock, Stock-Industry-Industry-Stock) and a relation-aware attention mechanism to combine representations.
  • M
    Transformer-based inter-day temporal extraction layer with relative position bias (ALIBI) and forward masking to capture temporal evolution of node representations across daily graph snapshots.

Results

  • R
    MDGNN achieves the highest IC (0.0123 on CSI100, 0.0322 on CSI300), IR (0.0746 on CSI100, 0.2488 on CSI300), CR (0.2741 on CSI100, 0.9828 on CSI300), and Precision@30 (0.5081 on CSI100, 0.5232 on CSI300) among all baselines.
  • R
    Outperforms heterogeneous graph methods (e.g., HGT, HAN) and dynamic graph methods (e.g., EvolveGCN, HTGNN) by significant margins, especially on the larger CSI300 dataset.
  • R
    Demonstrates that incorporating multifaceted relations (industry, investment bank, stock) and temporal dynamics yields substantial improvements over single-relation or static graph approaches.
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