Deep Attentive Survival Analysis in Limit Order Books: Estimating Fill Probabilities with Convolutional-Transformers

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Deep Attentive Survival Analysis in Limit Order Books: Estimating Fill Probabilities with Convolutional-Transformers

Alvaro Arroyo
Alvaro Cartea
Fernando Moreno-Pino
Stefan Zohren
Published on 6/8/2023
Equities
Futures
Machine learning
Deep learning
High frequency trading
Risk management

This paper introduces a deep learning approach for estimating fill probabilities of limit orders in limit order books using survival analysis. The model employs a convolutional-Transformer encoder to capture complex temporal dependencies in LOB data, combined with a monotonic neural network decoder to ensure valid survival functions. The authors emphasize the use of proper scoring rules, specifically right-censored log-likelihood, for model evaluation, which avoids pitfalls of improper metrics like time-dependent concordance. The method is tested on Nasdaq data for multiple assets with varying tick sizes and trading activity. Results show that the proposed architecture significantly outperforms traditional survival models (e.g., Cox proportional hazards, DeepSurv) and recent deep learning baselines. A comprehensive statistical analysis reveals that placing limit orders inside the bid-ask spread dramatically increases fill probability and reduces time-to-fill, especially for large-tick stocks. Interpretability analysis using Shapley values indicates that high-frequency microstructural features are most influential for predictions. The work provides practical insights for optimal order placement in electronic markets.

Highlights

  • 1Novel convolutional-Transformer encoder for survival analysis in limit order books, outperforming standard benchmarks.
  • 2Use of proper scoring rules (right-censored log-likelihood) to ensure accurate model evaluation.
  • 3First statistical evaluation of fill probabilities for orders placed inside the bid-ask spread across multiple assets.
  • 4Interpretability analysis using Shapley values reveals high-frequency features are most informative.

Methods

  • M
    Convolutional-Transformer encoder with dilated causal convolutions and sparse self-attention.
  • M
    Monotonic neural network decoder to enforce decreasing survival functions.
  • M
    Maximum likelihood estimation with right-censored log-likelihood for training.
  • M
    Generation of training data via tracked orders and hypothetical pegged orders.

Results

  • R
    Proposed model significantly outperforms Cox proportional hazards, DeepSurv, and other baselines in terms of proper scoring rules.
  • R
    Fill probability increases when orders are placed deeper inside the spread, with faster fill times for large-tick stocks.
  • R
    Orders inside the spread have 3-6 times higher fill probability than at the best level for large-tick stocks.
  • R
    High-frequency features (e.g., order flow, queue dynamics) are more important than slow-moving features (e.g., intraday patterns).
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