ChatGPT in Systematic Investing -- Enhancing Risk-Adjusted Returns with LLMs
ChatGPT in Systematic Investing -- Enhancing Risk-Adjusted Returns with LLMs
This paper investigates whether large language models (LLMs) can enhance cross-sectional momentum strategies by extracting predictive signals from firm-specific news. The authors combine daily U.S. equity returns for S&P 500 constituents with high-frequency news data and use prompt-engineered queries to ChatGPT to evaluate whether recent news supports continuation of past returns. The LLM produces scores that condition both stock selection and portfolio weights, creating an LLM-enhanced momentum strategy. The methodology involves a validation set (October 2019 to December 2023) for hyperparameter tuning and a truly out-of-sample test set (January 2024 to March 2025) after ChatGPT's pre-training cutoff, ensuring no information leakage.
The empirical results show that the LLM-enhanced strategy consistently outperforms a standard long-only momentum benchmark, delivering higher Sharpe and Sortino ratios both in-sample and out-of-sample. For example, the out-of-sample Sharpe ratio improves from 0.79 to 1.06, with lower volatility and smaller maximum drawdown. These gains are robust to transaction costs of 2 bps, prompt design, and portfolio constraints. The optimal configuration uses monthly rebalancing, a one-day news lookback, a basic prompt, 50 stocks, value-weighting, and a high weight multiplier. The study finds that the LLM's informational edge is strongest for concentrated, high-conviction portfolios, and that simpler prompts perform slightly better. Overall, the paper demonstrates that LLMs can serve as effective real-time interpreters of financial news, adding incremental value to established factor-based investment strategies.
Highlights
- 1LLM-enhanced momentum strategy outperforms baseline with higher Sharpe and Sortino ratios both in-sample and out-of-sample.
- 2Performance gains are robust to transaction costs, prompt design, and portfolio constraints.
- 3Out-of-sample period after ChatGPT's pre-training cutoff shows even stronger results, ruling out information leakage.
- 4Monthly rebalancing outperforms weekly, and concentrated high-conviction portfolios benefit most from LLM signals.
- 5Simpler prompts yield slightly better performance, and weight constraints improve risk management.
Methods
- MCross-sectional momentum strategy with long-only S&P 500 stocks, using past 12-month returns (excluding last month).
- MLLM (ChatGPT 4.0 mini) prompt-engineered to score firm-specific news on likelihood of momentum continuation.
- MPortfolio construction: select top m stocks by LLM score, tilt weights using exponential function of score.
- MHyperparameter optimization on validation set (2019-2023) using objective function combining Sharpe ratio and maximum drawdown.
Results
- RLLM-enhanced strategy achieves full-sample Sharpe ratio of 0.69 vs. 0.57 for baseline; out-of-sample Sharpe 1.06 vs. 0.79.
- RAnnualized return increases from 15% to 18% (full sample) and from 24% to 30% (out-of-sample).
- RVolatility decreases from 26% to 24% (full sample) and from 24% to 22% (out-of-sample).
- RMaximum drawdown improves from -33% to -31% (full sample) and from -19% to -17% (out-of-sample).
- ROptimal configuration: monthly rebalancing, 1-day news lookback, basic prompt, 50 stocks, value-weighted, weight multiplier of 5.
Analyze Paper
Generate insights from "ChatGPT in Systematic Investing -- Enhancing Risk-Adjusted R...".