Sequence Classification of the Limit Order Book using Recurrent Neural Networks
Sequence Classification of the Limit Order Book using Recurrent Neural Networks
This paper presents the first application of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to sequence classification of limit order book (LOB) data for predicting short-term mid-price movements in financial markets. The authors propose using raw LOB features—specifically, normalized prices and volumes at the top ten bid and ask levels—as input sequences to RNN architectures, including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). The study addresses the challenge of high-frequency trading data by capturing temporal dependencies inherent in order book dynamics. The methodology involves preprocessing high-frequency LOB data from NASDAQ stocks, creating labeled sequences for binary classification of upward or downward mid-price movements over a 10-tick horizon. The RNN models are compared against traditional machine learning methods such as Support Vector Machines (SVM), Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and Random Forest. The empirical results demonstrate that LSTM and GRU models significantly outperform these baselines, achieving prediction accuracies of up to 73%, compared to 65% for SVM and 68% for MLP. The findings highlight the effectiveness of deep learning in extracting predictive signals from high-frequency financial data, suggesting that LOB dynamics contain exploitable patterns. The paper contributes to the growing literature on machine learning in finance and provides practical insights for algorithmic trading strategies. The results also indicate that market inefficiencies exist at very short time horizons, challenging the efficient market hypothesis at high frequencies.
Highlights
- 1First application of RNNs to limit order book (LOB) sequence classification for mid-price movement prediction.
- 2Demonstrates that RNNs outperform traditional machine learning methods (e.g., SVM, MLP) on LOB data.
- 3Introduces a novel feature engineering approach using raw LOB data (prices and volumes at top levels) as input sequences.
- 4Shows that LSTM and GRU architectures capture temporal dependencies in LOB dynamics effectively.
- 5Provides empirical evidence on the predictability of short-term price movements using high-frequency LOB data.
Methods
- MRecurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) including LSTM and GRU for sequence classification.
- MFeature extraction from limit order book: using normalized prices and volumes at top 10 bid/ask levels.
- MData preprocessing: handling of missing values, normalization, and creation of labeled sequences for mid-price movement prediction.
- MComparison with baseline models: Support Vector Machines (SVM), Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and Random Forest.
Results
- RLSTM and GRU models achieve higher accuracy (up to 73%) compared to SVM (65%) and MLP (68%) for predicting mid-price movements over 10-tick horizons.
- RThe use of raw LOB features (prices and volumes) outperforms handcrafted features like order flow imbalance.
- RPerformance improves with longer sequence lengths (up to 100 time steps), indicating the importance of historical context.
- RModels show better predictive power during periods of high volatility and market activity.
- RThe study finds that mid-price movement prediction is significantly above random chance, confirming market inefficiency at high frequencies.
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