Event-Aware Sentiment Factors from LLM-Augmented Financial Tweets: A Transparent Framework for Interpretable Quant Trading
Event-Aware Sentiment Factors from LLM-Augmented Financial Tweets: A Transparent Framework for Interpretable Quant Trading
This paper introduces a transparent framework for extracting interpretable alpha signals from financial tweets by leveraging large language models (LLMs) to perform multi-label event classification. Unlike traditional sentiment analysis that only captures polarity, the proposed method assigns fine-grained event categories (e.g., rumor/speculation, retail investor buzz, brand boycott) to each tweet, enabling the construction of structured, event-driven factors. Using a dataset of over 85,000 company-related tweets, the authors build cross-sectional factors by aggregating net tone scores per event label and evaluate their predictive power through portfolio sorts and long-short backtests over 1- to 7-day horizons.
The empirical results reveal that certain event labels, particularly Speculation/Rumor and Geopolitical Tension, consistently generate statistically significant negative alpha, with Sharpe ratios as low as -0.38 and information coefficients exceeding 0.05. These findings suggest that high volumes of discussion around specific themes act as contrarian indicators. The study also demonstrates that the predictive power of these event-based factors is orthogonal to market beta, confirming they represent genuine alpha rather than exposure to known risk factors. Additionally, a baseline lexicon-based sentiment strategy achieved an impressive Sharpe ratio of 5.0, underscoring the overall value of social media sentiment.
A key contribution of this work is its commitment to transparency and reproducibility: all code, methodologies, and processed data are publicly available. The framework provides a principled path toward next-generation behavioral finance research, bridging advances in NLP with interpretable quantitative modeling. Future work includes extending the framework to other text sources, fine-tuning domain-specific LLMs, and modeling temporal dynamics of narrative decay.
Highlights
- 1Proposes a novel framework using LLMs to assign multi-label event categories (e.g., rumor, retail buzz, boycott) to financial tweets, moving beyond simple sentiment polarity.
- 2Discovers that certain LLM-labeled event types (e.g., Speculation/Rumor, Geopolitical Tension) consistently yield statistically significant negative alpha with Sharpe ratios as low as -0.38 and IC exceeding 0.05.
- 3Demonstrates that event-based sentiment factors are orthogonal to market beta, representing genuine alpha rather than exposure to known risk factors.
- 4Provides a fully open-source pipeline for reproducible research, including code, methodologies, and processed data.
Methods
- MLLM-based zero-shot multi-label event classification using a curated dictionary of 70+ financially relevant event types.
- MCross-sectional factor construction by aggregating net tone scores per event label per stock per day.
- MPortfolio sorts and long-short backtesting over 1-, 2-, 3-, and 7-day holding horizons with performance metrics (Sharpe ratio, IC, win rate).
- MResidual analysis to verify orthogonality to market beta.
Results
- RThe lexicon-based sentiment strategy achieved an annualized return of 8% and a Sharpe ratio of 5.0 with a maximum drawdown of -15.2%.
- RLLM-derived event labels such as Speculation/Rumor, Retail Investor Buzz, and Geopolitical Tension exhibit consistently negative and statistically significant Sharpe ratios across multiple horizons (p < 0.01).
- RInformation coefficients for top event labels exceed 0.05 in absolute value, with some reaching 0.10-0.14.
- RThe predictive power of event-based factors is orthogonal to market beta, confirming genuine alpha generation.
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