Order book dynamics in liquid markets: limit theorems and diffusion approximations

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Order book dynamics in liquid markets: limit theorems and diffusion approximations

Rama Cont
Adrien De Larrard
Published on 2/28/2012
Equities
Stocks
FX
Futures
Commodities
High frequency trading
Risk management
Machine learning
Volatility effect
Liquidity risk premium
Backtesting
Arbitrage

This paper develops a theoretical framework for modeling limit order book dynamics in liquid markets characterized by high-frequency order submissions. The authors establish a functional central limit theorem that describes the joint evolution of bid and ask queues, demonstrating that when order arrival frequencies are sufficiently high, the complex intraday dynamics can be effectively approximated by a Markovian jump-diffusion process. This approximation operates in the positive orthant and its characteristics are explicitly derived from the statistical properties of the underlying order flow, providing a mathematically tractable representation of market microstructure behavior.

The significance of this result lies in its ability to generate analytical approximations for various quantities of practical interest to market participants and researchers, including the probability of price movements and the distribution of durations between price changes, conditional on the current state of the order book. The framework's generality allows it to accommodate a wide range of distributional assumptions and temporal dependence patterns in order flow, making it applicable to numerous stochastic models commonly used in market microstructure research, such as Poisson point processes, self-exciting point processes, and ACD-GARCH family models.

Highlights

  • 1Derives a functional central limit theorem for bid and ask queue dynamics in liquid markets
  • 2Shows that high-frequency order arrivals lead to Markovian jump-diffusion approximations
  • 3Provides tractable analytical approximations for key market microstructure quantities
  • 4Applies to a wide range of stochastic models including Poisson, self-exciting, and ACD-GARCH processes

Methods

  • M
    Functional central limit theorem analysis
  • M
    Diffusion approximation techniques
  • M
    Markovian jump-diffusion process modeling
  • M
    Statistical characterization of order flow properties

Results

  • R
    Intraday limit order book dynamics can be approximated by a Markovian jump-diffusion process in the positive orthant
  • R
    Approximation characteristics are explicitly described in terms of underlying order flow statistical properties
  • R
    Enables analytical approximations for probability of price increases and duration until next price moves
  • R
    Results hold under various distributional assumptions and temporal dependence structures
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