Physical Climate Risk in Asset Management

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Physical Climate Risk in Asset Management

Michele Azzone
Matteo Ghesini
Davide Stocco
Lorenzo Viola
Published on 4/27/2025
Equities
Risk management
Machine learning

This paper develops a framework to assess physical climate risk in asset management by extending the Vasicek firm value model with downward jumps that represent extreme climate events. The model is calibrated using ND-GAIN country vulnerability scores and firm-level asset intensity (property, plant, and equipment over revenues), allowing firms to be grouped into clusters with similar risk profiles. The authors apply the model to a global dataset of over 10,000 stocks and compute expected and unexpected portfolio losses under climate-stressed scenarios. Results show that expected losses increase over time, with significant variation across sectors and regions; high-vulnerability and high-asset-intensity clusters suffer the most. The framework enables the calculation of climate-related Value-at-Risk add-ons, supporting the integration of physical risks into risk management and suggesting the need for additional capital buffers for exposed portfolios. The approach is practical, relying on publicly available data, and can be adapted to more granular loss estimates if available.

Highlights

  • 1Introduces a novel multivariate firm value model with jumps to quantify physical climate risk in equity portfolios.
  • 2Proposes a calibration procedure using publicly available ND-GAIN vulnerability scores and balance sheet data.
  • 3Demonstrates that expected portfolio losses increase over time, with significant sectoral and regional disparities.
  • 4Provides a framework for computing climate-related VaR add-ons, supporting regulatory capital requirements.

Methods

  • M
    Vasicek firm value model extended with compound Poisson jumps to capture climate shocks.
  • M
    Hierarchical clustering based on ND-GAIN vulnerability scores and asset intensity (PPE/revenues).
  • M
    Gordon Growth Model to estimate equity shocks from reduced growth rates due to climate impacts.
  • M
    Lewis formula for option pricing under jump-diffusion processes to compute stressed equity values.

Results

  • R
    Expected losses increase over time, with higher losses in high-vulnerability and high-asset-intensity clusters.
  • R
    Sectoral indices show pronounced differences in exposure; mining and heavy industry are most affected.
  • R
    Climate VaR add-ons suggest need for additional capital buffers, especially for asset-intensive sectors.
  • R
    The model can be calibrated with widely available data, making it practical for financial institutions.
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