Statistical Arbitrage in Options Markets by Graph Learning and Synthetic Long Positions
Statistical Arbitrage in Options Markets by Graph Learning and Synthetic Long Positions
This paper addresses the problem of directly identifying and exploiting statistical arbitrage (StatArb) in options markets using graph learning. The authors propose a two-stage approach. In the first stage, they define a novel prediction target based on synthetic zero-coupon bonds constructed from synthetic-long and underlying instrument positions; deviations from the law of one price represent pure arbitrage opportunities. They develop RNConv, a graph convolutional network that integrates Neural Oblivious Decision Ensembles (NODE) to effectively handle tabular node features while capturing relational structures among options. In the second stage, they introduce SLSA (Synthetic-Long-Short-Arbitrage), a class of positions that are provably minimal risk and neutral to all Black-Scholes risk factors under the arbitrage-free assumption. An SLSA projection method converts arbitrage predictions into such positions. Experiments on KOSPI 200 index options demonstrate that RNConv statistically significantly outperforms standard GNN baselines (GCN, SAGE, GAT, GPS), and SLSA achieves consistently positive returns with an average P&L-contract information ratio of 0.1627. The work bridges gaps in applying deep learning to StatArb in options markets and in incorporating tree-based methods into graph neural networks for tabular features.
Highlights
- 1Proposes a two-stage graph learning approach for directly identifying and exploiting statistical arbitrage in options markets.
- 2Introduces RNConv, a graph convolutional architecture integrating neural oblivious decision ensembles (NODE) to handle tabular node features effectively.
- 3Defines a novel prediction target based on synthetic bonds that isolates pure arbitrage opportunities.
- 4Presents SLSA (Synthetic-Long-Short-Arbitrage), a class of positions that are provably minimal risk and neutral to Black-Scholes risk factors under the arbitrage-free assumption.
- 5Demonstrates statistically significant outperformance over GNN baselines and consistent positive returns on KOSPI 200 index options data.
Methods
- MGraph Neural Networks (GNNs) with RNConv architecture combining NODE (differentiable oblivious decision trees) and graph convolution.
- MSynthetic bond construction to define a pure arbitrage prediction target.
- MSLSA projection method to convert arbitrage predictions into low-risk trading positions.
- MTrading universe selection model to ensure practical feasibility and back-testing validity.
Results
- RRNConv statistically significantly outperforms GCN, SAGE, GAT, and GPS baselines on KOSPI 200 index options data.
- RSLSA positions achieve an average P&L-contract information ratio of 0.1627.
- RSLSA yields consistently positive returns over the test period.
- RThe proposed prediction target effectively isolates pure arbitrage opportunities from market prices.
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