A reinforcement learning extension to the Almgren-Chriss model for optimal trade execution

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A reinforcement learning extension to the Almgren-Chriss model for optimal trade execution

Dieter Hendricks
Diane Wilcox
Published on 3/10/2014
Equities
Stocks
Reinforcement learning
Machine learning
High frequency trading
Risk management

This paper presents a reinforcement learning (RL) extension to the Almgren-Chriss (AC) model for optimal trade execution, aiming to dynamically adjust a static volume trajectory based on real-time market microstructure conditions. The AC model provides a closed-form solution for minimizing implementation shortfall under linear price impact, but assumes a fixed trading schedule. The authors propose a hybrid approach where a Q-learning agent modifies the proportion of the AC-suggested volume to trade at each time step, using state attributes such as elapsed time, remaining inventory, spread percentile, and volume percentile. The problem is formulated as a finite-horizon Markov Decision Process (MDP), and convergence to an optimal policy is ensured by transforming it into an infinite-horizon process with an absorbing state, following Garcia and Ndiaye (1999).

Using 12 months of limit order book data from the South African equity market (ALSI index), the RL-enhanced model is tested on three large-cap stocks (SBK, AGL, SAB) with various trade sizes and horizons. Results show that the RL extension improves median implementation shortfall by up to 10.3% on average compared to the base AC model, with the greatest improvements observed for shorter trading horizons (20 minutes). The model learns to trade more aggressively when spreads are tight and volumes are high, and to reduce trading when conditions are unfavorable, thereby reducing overall transaction costs. The study demonstrates that RL can effectively enhance existing analytical solutions by exploiting microstructure patterns, offering a practical tool for sell-side execution algorithms.

Highlights

  • 1Proposes a hybrid reinforcement learning (RL) extension to the Almgren-Chriss (AC) model for optimal trade execution, dynamically adjusting the AC volume trajectory based on market microstructure.
  • 2Achieves up to 10.3% average improvement in implementation shortfall over the base AC model in the South African equity market.
  • 3Formulates the problem as a finite-horizon Markov Decision Process (MDP) with convergence guarantees using a transformation to an infinite-horizon process.
  • 4Uses state attributes including elapsed time, remaining inventory, spread percentile, and volume percentile to capture market conditions.
  • 5Demonstrates that the RL-enhanced model is most effective for shorter trading horizons (e.g., 20 minutes).

Methods

  • M
    Q-learning with finite-horizon MDP adaptation (Garcia and Ndiaye's transformation) for optimal policy convergence.
  • M
    Almgren-Chriss model with linear price impact as base trajectory, calibrated using historical data.
  • M
    State discretization: elapsed time, remaining inventory, spread percentile bins, and volume percentile bins.
  • M
    Action space: proportion (β) of AC-suggested volume to trade, with residual volume executed via market order at horizon end.

Results

  • R
    RL extension improves median implementation shortfall by up to 10.3% on average compared to the base AC model.
  • R
    Improvement is more pronounced for shorter trading horizons (T=4, 20 minutes) than longer horizons.
  • R
    Model effectiveness varies across stocks and trade sizes, with consistent positive results for large-cap South African stocks (SBK, AGL, SAB).
  • R
    The hybrid approach preserves the AC trajectory shape while adapting to favorable/unfavorable spread and volume conditions.
  • R
    Results are based on 12 months of tick data from the South African ALSI index, with training on first 6 months and testing on the latter.
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