Incorporating prior financial domain knowledge into neural networks for implied volatility surface prediction

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Incorporating prior financial domain knowledge into neural networks for implied volatility surface prediction

Yu Zheng
Yongxin Yang
Bowei Chen
Published on 4/29/2019
Options
Equities
United States (US)
Machine learning
Deep learning
Risk management
Volatility effect

This paper presents a novel neural network model for predicting the implied volatility surface (IVS) that explicitly incorporates prior financial domain knowledge. The authors design a custom activation function (smile function) that mimics the volatility smile pattern, applied to hidden nodes processing the log forward moneyness. Additionally, financial constraints such as no-arbitrage conditions (monotonicity, butterfly arbitrage), boundary conditions, and asymptotic slope are embedded as penalty terms in the loss function. The architecture consists of multiple single networks (each with smile and sigmoid activations) whose outputs are combined via a weighting network, allowing flexible modeling of the IVS.

Using 20 years of S&P 500 index options data (1996-2016), the proposed model (Multi) is compared against the state-of-the-art SSVI model and several neural network baselines (Single, Vanilla). Multi achieves the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for both implied volatility (1.74% training, 3.34% test) and option prices (5.97% training, 10.64% test). Importantly, the model empirically satisfies the embedded financial constraints, ensuring consistency with established financial theory. This work demonstrates a successful framework for integrating domain knowledge into neural network design and training, enhancing both predictive performance and interpretability in quantitative finance.

Highlights

  • 1Proposes a novel neural network architecture that incorporates volatility smile via a custom activation function and embeds no-arbitrage conditions into the loss function.
  • 2Achieves superior prediction accuracy on S&P 500 index options over 20 years compared to SSVI and standard neural networks.
  • 3Empirically satisfies key financial constraints (monotonicity, butterfly arbitrage, boundaries, asymptotic slope), ensuring consistency with financial theory.
  • 4One of the first studies to systematically integrate prior financial domain knowledge into both neural network design and training for implied volatility surface prediction.

Methods

  • M
    Custom smile activation function φ(z) = [z tanh(z+0.5) + tanh(-0.5z+ε)]^{1/2} for moneyness nodes.
  • M
    Multi-network architecture with single networks (using smile and sigmoid activations) and a weighting network (softmax over sigmoid hidden layers).
  • M
    Loss function combining data loss (MSLE+MSPE) with penalty terms for monotonicity, butterfly arbitrage, boundary conditions, and asymptotic slope.
  • M
    Regularization via squared Frobenius norms on weights.

Results

  • R
    Proposed Multi model achieves training MAPE of 1.74% and test MAPE of 3.34%, outperforming SSVI (2.59%/3.73%) and vanilla neural networks (3.21%/4.46%).
  • R
    Option prices computed from predicted volatilities also show lower MAPE for Multi (5.97% training, 10.64% test) vs. SSVI (8.71%/12.74%).
  • R
    Incorporating domain knowledge (Multi vs. Multi†) slightly improves test MAPE (3.34% vs. 3.35%) and reduces standard deviation.
  • R
    The model empirically satisfies no-arbitrage conditions, boundaries, and asymptotic slope, demonstrating consistency with financial theory.
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