Integrating Inductive Biases in Transformers via Distillation for Financial Time Series Forecasting
Integrating Inductive Biases in Transformers via Distillation for Financial Time Series Forecasting
The paper introduces TIPS (Transformer with Inductive Prior Synthesis), a knowledge distillation framework designed to integrate multiple inductive biases—causality, locality, and periodicity—into a single Transformer model for financial time series forecasting. The authors first demonstrate that different market regimes favor distinct inductive biases, and that naively combining multiple biases in one model leads to a 'merging penalty' where performance degrades. To address this, TIPS trains a set of bias-specialized Transformer teachers using attention masking and positional biases, then distills their collective knowledge into a compact student model using aggressive regularization techniques including low-temperature distillation, label smoothing, and stochastic weight averaging. This allows the student to exhibit regime-dependent alignment with different biases while maintaining the inference efficiency of a single model. Extensive experiments on four major equity markets (CSI300, CSI500, NI225, SP500) show that TIPS achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming strong ensemble baselines by up to 55% in annual return and 9% in Sharpe ratio, while requiring only 38% of the inference-time computation. The work highlights the importance of adaptive inductive bias utilization for robust generalization in non-stationary financial time series.
Highlights
- 1Proposes TIPS, a knowledge distillation framework that synthesizes causality, locality, and periodicity inductive biases into a single Transformer for financial time series forecasting.
- 2Demonstrates that naively merging multiple inductive biases in a single model leads to a 'merging penalty', degrading performance compared to specialized models.
- 3Achieves state-of-the-art performance across four major equity markets, outperforming strong ensemble baselines by up to 55% in annual return while requiring only 38% of inference-time computation.
- 4Provides evidence that TIPS exhibits regime-dependent alignment with different inductive biases, adapting to changing market conditions.
Methods
- MBias-specialized Transformer teachers: Encode distinct inductive biases (causality, locality, periodicity) via attention masking and positional biases within a homogeneous Transformer backbone.
- MKnowledge distillation with aggressive regularization: Distills collective knowledge from teacher ensemble into a single student model using low-temperature distillation, label smoothing, and stochastic weight averaging.
- MDifferentiable Spearman correlation loss: Used for training teachers and student to directly optimize ranking performance for portfolio construction.
Results
- RTIPS achieves average Sharpe ratio of 1.454 and annual return of 0.907 across CSI300, CSI500, NI225, and SP500, outperforming all baselines.
- RCompared to the strongest ensemble baseline (Classical Architecture Ensemble), TIPS improves annual return by 54.8% and Sharpe ratio by 8.8%.
- RTIPS reduces inference-time computation by 7x compared to the Bias Teacher Ensemble while improving performance.
- RAblation studies confirm that all regularization components (low temperature, label smoothing, SWA) are necessary for effective bias synthesis.
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