A Multi-factor Adaptive Statistical Arbitrage Model

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A Multi-factor Adaptive Statistical Arbitrage Model

Wenbin Zhang
Zhen Dai
Bindu Pan
Milan Djabirov
Published on 5/10/2014
Equities
Stocks
Machine learning
Factor investing
Pairs trading

This paper presents a multi-factor adaptive statistical arbitrage model that extends traditional cointegration-based strategies by incorporating multiple factors beyond price data for portfolio selection. The authors explore three methodologies: K-means clustering, graphical lasso, and a hybrid combination of both, to identify candidate portfolios that are likely to be cointegrated. The results demonstrate that clustering alone yields better candidate portfolios than using graphical lasso on the entire equity pool, and the hybrid approach further improves performance. The study also examines an adaptive approach that re-computes portfolios during the trading period to account for changing relationships, but finds that this re-learning does not enhance results. The strategy successfully passes the statistical arbitrage test at a statistically significant level, and the findings are validated on an independent dataset, confirming the robustness of the proposed model. Overall, the paper contributes a novel framework for statistical arbitrage that leverages multi-factor information and clustering techniques to enhance portfolio selection and trading performance.

Highlights

  • 1Proposes a multi-factor statistical arbitrage model that uses factors beyond price data for portfolio selection.
  • 2Compares K-means clustering, graphical lasso, and a hybrid approach for identifying cointegrated portfolios.
  • 3Tests an adaptive re-learning strategy during the trading period and finds it does not improve performance.
  • 4Validates the presence of statistical arbitrage at a statistically significant level across different datasets.

Methods

  • M
    Cointegration-based statistical arbitrage with multi-factor portfolio selection.
  • M
    K-means clustering to group assets before testing for cointegration.
  • M
    Graphical lasso to estimate sparse inverse covariance for portfolio selection.
  • M
    Hybrid approach combining clustering and graphical lasso for candidate portfolio discovery.

Results

  • R
    Clustering-based portfolio selection yields better candidate portfolios than graphical lasso alone.
  • R
    The hybrid approach (clustering + graphical lasso) outperforms both individual methods.
  • R
    Adaptive re-learning during the trading period does not improve results compared to a static approach.
  • R
    The strategy passes the statistical arbitrage test at a statistically significant level.
  • R
    Findings are validated on a separate dataset for formation and trading periods.
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