Deep Recurrent Factor Model: Interpretable Non-Linear and Time-Varying Multi-Factor Model

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Deep Recurrent Factor Model: Interpretable Non-Linear and Time-Varying Multi-Factor Model

Kei Nakagawa
Tomoki Ito
Masaya Abe
Kiyoshi Izumi
Published on 1/20/2019
Equities
Stocks
Japan
Factor investing
Machine learning
Deep learning
Stock picking
Multi-Agent

This paper addresses a critical limitation in quantitative finance: the trade-off between predictive accuracy and interpretability in multi-factor models. While traditional linear multi-factor models offer transparency but limited accuracy due to their inability to capture non-linear market dynamics, recent deep learning approaches improve predictions but operate as black boxes that institutional investors cannot use in practice due to accountability requirements.

The authors propose a novel deep recurrent factor model that combines Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks with Layer-wise Relevance Propagation (LRP) to create an interpretable non-linear and time-varying multi-factor model. The LSTM component captures complex temporal patterns and non-linear relationships in financial markets, while LRP provides a mechanism to approximate and linearize the learned models, making them interpretable for investment professionals. Through empirical analysis of the Japanese stock market, the authors demonstrate that their approach not only outperforms traditional linear models but also surpasses fully-connected deep learning methods while maintaining the transparency required for institutional investment practice.

Highlights

  • 1Proposes a deep recurrent factor model combining LSTM with LRP for interpretable non-linear factor modeling
  • 2Extends traditional linear multi-factor models to capture non-linear and time-varying market dynamics
  • 3Provides transparency and interpretability for institutional investors through LRP-based linearization
  • 4Demonstrates superior predictive performance compared to traditional linear models and fully-connected deep networks
  • 5Validates the model through empirical analysis of the Japanese stock market

Methods

  • M
    Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks for capturing non-linear and time-varying relationships
  • M
    Layer-wise Relevance Propagation (LRP) for model interpretation and linearization
  • M
    Empirical analysis using Japanese stock market data
  • M
    Comparative evaluation against traditional linear models and fully-connected deep learning approaches

Results

  • R
    The deep recurrent factor model outperforms traditional linear multi-factor models in predictive accuracy
  • R
    The model demonstrates better performance than fully-connected deep learning methods while maintaining interpretability
  • R
    LRP successfully linearizes the learned LSTM models, providing transparent factor attributions
  • R
    The approach enables institutional investors to use advanced machine learning while maintaining accountability
  • R
    The model captures complex market dynamics that linear models cannot represent adequately
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