Deep Recurrent Factor Model: Interpretable Non-Linear and Time-Varying Multi-Factor Model
Deep Recurrent Factor Model: Interpretable Non-Linear and Time-Varying Multi-Factor Model
This paper addresses a critical limitation in quantitative finance: the trade-off between predictive accuracy and interpretability in multi-factor models. While traditional linear multi-factor models offer transparency but limited accuracy due to their inability to capture non-linear market dynamics, recent deep learning approaches improve predictions but operate as black boxes that institutional investors cannot use in practice due to accountability requirements.
The authors propose a novel deep recurrent factor model that combines Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks with Layer-wise Relevance Propagation (LRP) to create an interpretable non-linear and time-varying multi-factor model. The LSTM component captures complex temporal patterns and non-linear relationships in financial markets, while LRP provides a mechanism to approximate and linearize the learned models, making them interpretable for investment professionals. Through empirical analysis of the Japanese stock market, the authors demonstrate that their approach not only outperforms traditional linear models but also surpasses fully-connected deep learning methods while maintaining the transparency required for institutional investment practice.
Highlights
- 1Proposes a deep recurrent factor model combining LSTM with LRP for interpretable non-linear factor modeling
- 2Extends traditional linear multi-factor models to capture non-linear and time-varying market dynamics
- 3Provides transparency and interpretability for institutional investors through LRP-based linearization
- 4Demonstrates superior predictive performance compared to traditional linear models and fully-connected deep networks
- 5Validates the model through empirical analysis of the Japanese stock market
Methods
- MLong Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks for capturing non-linear and time-varying relationships
- MLayer-wise Relevance Propagation (LRP) for model interpretation and linearization
- MEmpirical analysis using Japanese stock market data
- MComparative evaluation against traditional linear models and fully-connected deep learning approaches
Results
- RThe deep recurrent factor model outperforms traditional linear multi-factor models in predictive accuracy
- RThe model demonstrates better performance than fully-connected deep learning methods while maintaining interpretability
- RLRP successfully linearizes the learned LSTM models, providing transparent factor attributions
- RThe approach enables institutional investors to use advanced machine learning while maintaining accountability
- RThe model captures complex market dynamics that linear models cannot represent adequately
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