Arbitrage-Free Implied Volatility Surface Generation with Variational Autoencoders

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Arbitrage-Free Implied Volatility Surface Generation with Variational Autoencoders

Brian Ning
Sebastian Jaimungal
Xiaorong Zhang
Maxime Bergeron
Published on 8/10/2021
Options
Derivatives
Machine learning
Deep learning
Risk management
Arbitrage

This paper introduces a novel hybrid method for generating arbitrage-free implied volatility (IV) surfaces by combining Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) with stochastic differential equation (SDE) models. The authors focus on two classes of SDE models: regime-switching continuous-time Markov chains (CTMC) and Lévy additive processes, both of which are inherently arbitrage-free. The SDE models are calibrated to historical market data using a loss function that includes a 1-Wasserstein distance penalty to prevent overfitting, especially in sparse data settings like FX options. The resulting SDE parameters form a distribution that is then learned by a VAE, which allows for generating new parameter samples from the latent space. These samples are decoded and mapped to IV surfaces, ensuring the generated surfaces are both realistic and arbitrage-free.

The paper extends the VAE framework to a conditional VAE (CVAE) that incorporates market features (e.g., spot price, interest rates) as conditioning variables, improving generative performance. The method is tested on 1,900 days of FX data for three currency pairs (AUD-USD, EUR-USD, CAD-USD). Results show that the CVAE outperforms standard VAE and β-VAE variants in out-of-sample generation, producing IV surfaces that closely match historical patterns while maintaining no-arbitrage conditions. The approach is particularly valuable for generating synthetic training data for deep learning pricing models and for risk management applications where realistic, arbitrage-free surface generation is critical.

Highlights

  • 1Hybrid method combining VAEs with SDE models to generate arbitrage-free IV surfaces consistent with historical data.
  • 2Focus on two SDE model classes: regime-switching CTMC and Lévy additive processes.
  • 3Incorporation of Wasserstein distance penalty to mitigate overfitting during SDE calibration.
  • 4Conditional VAE (CVAE) extension that conditions on market features for improved generative performance.
  • 5Application to FX options data (AUD-USD, EUR-USD, CAD-USD) demonstrating superior out-of-sample generation.

Methods

  • M
    Calibration of SDE models (CTMC and Lévy additive processes) using a loss function combining pricing error and 1-Wasserstein distance.
  • M
    Variational Autoencoder (VAE) and β-VAE for learning the distribution of SDE parameters.
  • M
    Conditional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE) incorporating conditioning features into encoder and decoder.
  • M
    Latent sampling from the VAE posterior to generate new SDE parameters, which are then mapped to IV surfaces.

Results

  • R
    The hybrid VAE-SDE approach generates IV surfaces that are both arbitrage-free and faithful to historical data.
  • R
    CVAE outperforms standard VAE and β-VAE in out-of-sample generation quality.
  • R
    Wasserstein regularization effectively prevents overfitting when calibrating SDE models to sparse FX data.
  • R
    The CTMC model provides flexible non-parametric fits to IV surfaces across different market regimes.
  • R
    Generated surfaces maintain realistic shapes and dynamics consistent with observed market behavior.
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