On deep calibration of (rough) stochastic volatility models

—

On deep calibration of (rough) stochastic volatility models

Christian Bayer
Blanka Horvath
Aitor Muguruza
Benjamin Stemper
Mehdi Tomas
Published on 8/22/2019
Options
Derivatives
Machine learning
Deep learning
Risk management

This paper addresses the computational bottleneck of calibrating rough stochastic volatility models, such as the rough Bergomi model, by proposing a two-step deep learning approach. In the first step, a neural network is trained to approximate the pricing map from model parameters to implied volatilities (or option prices) using synthetic data generated by Monte Carlo simulations. The second step uses traditional optimization algorithms, specifically Levenberg-Marquardt, on the neural network surrogate to calibrate model parameters to market data. This separation leverages the speed of neural network evaluations and automatic differentiation for fast Jacobian computation, while maintaining interpretability and compatibility with existing risk management frameworks.

The authors compare different neural network architectures, including pointwise and grid-based approaches, and find that a remarkably small network (3 layers, 30 neurons) suffices for grid-based calibration, enabling deployment on standard CPUs without GPUs. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the method achieves high accuracy for the rough Bergomi model, which is notoriously difficult to calibrate due to the high cost of Monte Carlo pricing. Additionally, the fast pricing surrogate facilitates Bayesian analysis, allowing uncertainty quantification of calibrated parameters. The approach is model-agnostic and can be applied to other stochastic volatility models, with simpler architectures sufficient for classical models like Heston or SABR. Overall, the paper provides a practical and efficient solution for real-time calibration of complex financial models.

Highlights

  • 1Proposes a two-step deep calibration approach: first learn the pricing map via neural networks, then calibrate model parameters using traditional optimization.
  • 2Provides the first neural network-based calibration method for rough volatility models, demonstrated on the rough Bergomi model.
  • 3Achieves fast and accurate calibration with a small network (3 layers, 30 neurons) running on standard CPU.
  • 4Enables Bayesian analysis of calibrated model parameters by providing near-instantaneous pricing.
  • 5Compares pointwise and grid-based neural network architectures for learning the implied volatility surface.

Methods

  • M
    Two-step calibration: (i) train a fully-connected neural network to approximate the pricing map from model parameters to implied volatilities; (ii) use Levenberg-Marquardt optimization on the neural network surrogate for calibration.
  • M
    Grid-based approach: fix strikes and maturities, learn mapping from model parameters to the entire implied volatility surface.
  • M
    Pointwise approach: include strikes and maturities as inputs to the neural network.
  • M
    Synthetic data generation: create training sets using Monte Carlo simulation or other numerical methods for the rough Bergomi model.

Results

  • R
    The two-step approach achieves sufficient accuracy for practical calibration of rough volatility models.
  • R
    A small neural network (3 layers, 30 neurons) is sufficient for grid-based calibration, enabling CPU-based deployment.
  • R
    The method provides fast and accurate Jacobians via automatic differentiation, accelerating Levenberg-Marquardt calibration.
  • R
    Bayesian calibration experiments on synthetic and SPX market data recover true or previously reported model parameters.
  • R
    The approach is model-agnostic and can be applied to classical stochastic volatility models (e.g., Heston, SABR) with simpler architectures.
0/5

Analyze Paper

Generate insights from "On deep calibration of (rough) stochastic volatility models".

Suggested Actions