Valuation of Mortality Risk via the Instantaneous Sharpe Ratio: Applications to Life Annuities

—

Valuation of Mortality Risk via the Instantaneous Sharpe Ratio: Applications to Life Annuities

Erhan Bayraktar
Moshe Milevsky
David Promislow
Virginia Young
Published on 2/22/2008
Private Market
Risk management
Machine learning

This paper develops a framework for valuing mortality-contingent claims, specifically life annuities, in an incomplete market where mortality risk is non-diversifiable. The authors assume that the insurer requires compensation for bearing this risk, quantified by a pre-specified instantaneous Sharpe ratio. The valuation proceeds by constructing a portfolio consisting of the annuity liability and a self-financing sub-portfolio of bonds and cash, then choosing the bond holding to minimize the local variance (local risk minimization). The annuity's value is then determined so that the portfolio's instantaneous Sharpe ratio equals a given constant α.

For a single life annuity, the value solves a non-linear partial differential equation (PDE). The authors show that this value coincides with the upper good deal bound of Cochrane and Saá-Requejo (2000), providing a new interpretation. As the number of contracts n increases, the value per contract converges to a limit that satisfies a linear PDE, which can be expressed as an expectation under an equivalent martingale measure. This limiting result demonstrates that the instantaneous Sharpe ratio acts as the market price of mortality risk. The paper also compares the approach with indifference pricing and discusses the case α = 0, which recovers the local risk minimization price.

Highlights

  • 1Develops a valuation theory for non-diversifiable mortality risk in incomplete markets using the instantaneous Sharpe ratio.
  • 2Shows that the value of a life annuity coincides with the upper good deal bound of Cochrane and Saá-Requejo (2000) and Björk and Slinko (2006).
  • 3Derives a linear PDE for the limiting value per contract as the number of contracts approaches infinity.
  • 4Provides an interpretation of the instantaneous Sharpe ratio as the annuity market's price of mortality risk.

Methods

  • M
    Local risk minimization to determine optimal hedging strategy in bonds.
  • M
    Instantaneous Sharpe ratio criterion to set the drift of the hedged portfolio.
  • M
    Stochastic mortality model with hazard rate following a diffusion process.
  • M
    Good deal bounds and indifference pricing for comparison.

Results

  • R
    The value of a life annuity solves a non-linear PDE incorporating the instantaneous Sharpe ratio.
  • R
    The optimal hedging strategy eliminates interest rate risk, leaving residual mortality risk.
  • R
    The limiting value per contract as n → ∞ solves a linear PDE and can be represented as an expectation under an equivalent martingale measure.
  • R
    The valuation method yields the upper good deal bound for the seller and the lower bound for the buyer.
  • R
    When α = 0, the value reduces to the local risk minimization price.
0/5

Analyze Paper

Generate insights from "Valuation of Mortality Risk via the Instantaneous Sharpe Rat...".

Suggested Actions