Option Pricing in Markets with Informed Traders

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Option Pricing in Markets with Informed Traders

Yuan Hu
Abootaleb Shirvani
Stoyan Stoyanov
Young Shin Kim
Frank J. Fabozzi
Svetlozar T. Rachev
Published on 6/4/2020
Options
Equities
Risk management
Machine learning

This paper extends the Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing theory to markets with informed traders, addressing the discontinuity puzzle where option prices become discontinuous at extreme stock return means or probabilities. The authors propose that a trader with information on stock price direction (probability of upturn) or mean return can incorporate this information into option pricing. For a trader with directional information, the fair option price follows the Black-Scholes-Merton formula with an additional term interpreted as a continuous dividend yield, which depends on the trader's information intensity and the market price of risk. This resolves the discontinuity by smoothly connecting the noisy trader case to the fully informed trader case. For traders with information on the mean return, the option price differs from Black-Scholes-Merton only when continuous-time trading is not allowed. The paper also generalizes the model to continuous-diffusion processes. Using market option data, the authors estimate implied surfaces of the probability for a stock upturn, the implied mean stock return, and the implied trader information intensity. The methodology is based on dynamic asset pricing theory and the Kim-Stoyanov-Rachev-Fabozzi (KSRF) binomial option pricing model, which is extended to incorporate informed traders through optimal forward contracts. The results provide a theoretical foundation for option pricing under asymmetric information and offer empirical tools to infer market participants' information sets.

Highlights

  • 1Extends Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing to markets with informed traders, resolving the discontinuity puzzle in option pricing.
  • 2Introduces new option pricing models for traders with information on stock price direction or mean return, incorporating a continuous dividend yield term.
  • 3Estimates implied surfaces of probability for stock upturn, mean stock return, and trader information intensity using market option data.
  • 4Provides a theoretical framework based on dynamic asset pricing theory and enlargement of filtration.
  • 5Generalizes the model to continuous-diffusion price processes.

Methods

  • M
    Dynamic asset pricing theory with enlarged filtration to incorporate trader information.
  • M
    Binomial option pricing (KSRF model) extended for informed traders with optimal forward contracts.
  • M
    Estimation of implied surfaces using market option data via calibration of model parameters.
  • M
    Continuous-time diffusion modeling with information on stock price direction and mean return.

Results

  • R
    Option price for an informed trader on stock direction equals Black-Scholes-Merton price with an additional continuous dividend yield.
  • R
    The dividend yield depends on the trader's information intensity and market price of risk, resolving the discontinuity at extreme probabilities.
  • R
    For traders with information on mean return, option price differs from Black-Scholes-Merton only when continuous trading is not allowed.
  • R
    Implied surfaces of probability for upturn, mean return, and information intensity can be estimated from market data.
  • R
    The model generalizes to continuous-diffusion processes, maintaining the dividend yield interpretation.
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