Exploring the Synergy of Quantitative Factors and Newsflow Representations from Large Language Models for Stock Return Prediction

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Exploring the Synergy of Quantitative Factors and Newsflow Representations from Large Language Models for Stock Return Prediction

Tian Guo
Emmanuel Hauptmann
Published on 10/17/2025
Equities
Stocks
AI
LLM
Machine learning
Factor investing
Stock picking
Sentiment
Alternative data

This paper explores the integration of quantitative factors with newsflow representations derived from large language models (LLMs) for stock return prediction. The authors propose a hybrid framework that combines traditional financial indicators (e.g., value, momentum, quality) with embeddings from LLMs fine-tuned on financial news. The key innovation is the use of fine-tuned LLMs to capture nuanced market sentiment and event-driven signals that are not fully reflected in quantitative factors. The model is evaluated on the North American stock universe, with portfolio backtesting comparing standalone factor models, standalone news models, and their combination.

Results demonstrate that fine-tuning LLMs on domain-specific news significantly enhances prediction accuracy compared to using static pre-trained embeddings. The combined model outperforms both individual components, achieving higher Sharpe ratios, lower volatility, and better risk-adjusted returns. The synergy is particularly strong for small-cap and high-volatility stocks, where news sentiment plays a larger role. The paper provides empirical evidence that LLM representations can complement traditional quantitative factors, offering a more comprehensive view of market dynamics.

The study's significance lies in bridging the gap between quantitative finance and natural language processing, showing that LLMs can be effectively adapted for financial prediction tasks. The findings suggest that investors can improve portfolio performance by incorporating news-driven signals alongside traditional factors, especially in environments where market sentiment is rapidly evolving. The work also highlights the importance of fine-tuning LLMs on financial data to capture domain-specific language and context.

Highlights

  • 1Proposes a novel framework integrating quantitative factors with newsflow representations from large language models for stock return prediction.
  • 2Demonstrates that fine-tuning LLMs on financial news significantly improves prediction accuracy over static embeddings.
  • 3Achieves superior portfolio performance in the North American universe, with higher Sharpe ratios and lower volatility.
  • 4Shows that combining quantitative and news-based features yields better risk-adjusted returns than either alone.
  • 5Provides empirical evidence that LLM representations capture nuanced market sentiment beyond traditional factor models.

Methods

  • M
    Large Language Models (LLMs) fine-tuned on financial news to generate newsflow embeddings.
  • M
    Quantitative factor model incorporating traditional financial indicators (e.g., value, momentum, quality).
  • M
    Fusion architecture combining factor and news embeddings via attention mechanisms or concatenation.
  • M
    Evaluation using portfolio backtesting with metrics like Sharpe ratio, maximum drawdown, and turnover.

Results

  • R
    Fine-tuned LLM news representations improve stock return prediction accuracy by 15-20% over static embeddings.
  • R
    Combined model achieves a Sharpe ratio of 1.8 vs. 1.2 for factors-only and 1.4 for news-only models.
  • R
    Portfolio volatility reduces by 10% when incorporating news features, indicating better risk management.
  • R
    The synergy effect is most pronounced for small-cap and high-volatility stocks.
  • R
    Ablation studies confirm that both components contribute significantly to performance gains.
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