The cross-sectional stock return predictions via quantum neural network and tensor network

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The cross-sectional stock return predictions via quantum neural network and tensor network

Nozomu Kobayashi
Yoshiyuki Suimon
Koichi Miyamoto
Kosuke Mitarai
Published on 4/25/2023
Equities
Japan
Machine learning
Deep learning
Stock picking
Factor investing

This paper investigates the application of quantum and quantum-inspired machine learning algorithms to cross-sectional stock return prediction. The authors compare quantum neural network (quantum circuit learning, QCL) and tensor network (matrix product state, MPS) models against classical benchmarks including linear regression and feed-forward neural networks. Using a dataset of Japanese stocks over a 10-year period, they construct portfolios based on model predictions and evaluate investment performance. The tensor network model achieves superior risk-adjusted returns, outperforming both linear regression and neural networks. While the quantum neural network underperforms the classical neural network overall, it shows competitive performance in the latest market environment, suggesting its ability to capture non-linear feature interactions. The study provides empirical evidence that quantum-inspired algorithms can be effectively applied to financial prediction tasks, highlighting their potential advantages in capturing complex patterns. The results also indicate that tensor networks, being classically simulable, offer a practical alternative to quantum computers for near-term applications.

Highlights

  • 1First empirical application of quantum neural network (QCL) and tensor network (MPS) to cross-sectional stock return prediction in the Japanese market.
  • 2Tensor network model outperforms classical benchmarks (linear regression and neural networks) in risk-adjusted returns over a 10-year backtest.
  • 3Quantum neural network shows competitive performance in the latest market environment, suggesting ability to capture non-linearity.
  • 4Demonstrates potential of quantum-inspired algorithms for financial prediction tasks.

Methods

  • M
    Quantum Circuit Learning (QCL): variational quantum algorithm using data encoding and parameterized quantum circuits.
  • M
    Matrix Product State (MPS) Tensor Network: factorized representation of high-dimensional tensors for machine learning.
  • M
    Classical benchmarks: linear regression and feed-forward neural networks with ReLU activation.
  • M
    Cross-sectional prediction framework with monthly rebalancing and portfolio construction based on predicted returns.

Results

  • R
    Tensor network model achieves superior risk-adjusted returns (higher Sharpe ratio) compared to linear regression and neural networks over the full 10-year period.
  • R
    Quantum neural network model underperforms classical neural network over the whole period but outperforms it in the latest market environment (2019-2021).
  • R
    Both quantum and tensor network models exhibit ability to capture non-linear interactions among features, leading to improved predictions in certain market regimes.
  • R
    Linear regression model shows the worst performance, confirming the importance of non-linearity in stock return prediction.
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