DeepUnifiedMom: Unified Time-series Momentum Portfolio Construction via Multi-Task Learning with Multi-Gate Mixture of Experts

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DeepUnifiedMom: Unified Time-series Momentum Portfolio Construction via Multi-Task Learning with Multi-Gate Mixture of Experts

Joel Ong
Dorien Herremans
Published on 6/13/2024
Equities
Fixed Income
FX
Commodities
Cross-asset
Momentum
Machine learning
Deep learning
Factor investing

DeepUnifiedMom introduces a deep learning framework that unifies time-series momentum strategies across multiple time horizons using multi-task learning and a multi-gate mixture of experts architecture. The model consists of shared LSTM experts that extract common features, task-specific gating networks that selectively combine expert outputs for fast, medium, and slow momentum predictions, and a Capital Allocation Network that learns to weight these three momentum portfolios to form a single unified portfolio. The training process minimizes a combined loss: RMSE for each task-specific network and a soft-capped negative Sharpe ratio for the capital allocation network, which helps prevent overfitting to noisy financial data.

Extensive backtesting on 49 futures contracts across equities, fixed income, foreign exchange, and commodities from 1990 to 2023 shows that DeepUnifiedMom consistently achieves higher risk-adjusted returns than traditional time-series momentum strategies and other deep learning baselines, even after accounting for transaction costs. The unified approach effectively captures momentum opportunities across different trend speeds, leading to improved diversification and reduced drawdowns. This work is the first to apply multi-task learning with multi-gate mixture of experts to portfolio construction, offering a practical tool for practitioners seeking to exploit the full spectrum of momentum in financial markets.

Highlights

  • 1Introduces DeepUnifiedMom, a novel deep learning framework for unified momentum portfolio construction using multi-task learning and multi-gate mixture of experts.
  • 2First implementation of multi-task learning combined with multi-gate mixture of experts in portfolio construction.
  • 3Proposes a Capital Allocation Network with a soft-capped Sharpe ratio loss to optimize risk-adjusted returns and reduce overfitting.
  • 4Demonstrates consistent outperformance over benchmark models across diverse asset classes including equities, fixed income, FX, and commodities, even after transaction costs.

Methods

  • M
    Multi-task learning with three task-specific networks predicting forward TSMOM signals for fast (1-month), medium (3-month), and slow (6-month) horizons.
  • M
    Multi-gate mixture of experts (MoMME) architecture with shared LSTM experts and task-specific gating networks for selective feature extraction.
  • M
    Capital Allocation Network (CAN) with softmax output to combine fast, medium, and slow momentum portfolios into a unified portfolio.
  • M
    Training with a combined loss function: RMSE for task-specific networks and a soft-capped negative Sharpe ratio for the CAN to mitigate overfitting.

Results

  • R
    DeepUnifiedMom outperforms traditional TSMOM strategies and deep learning baselines in terms of Sharpe ratio and risk-adjusted returns.
  • R
    The unified portfolio effectively captures momentum across multiple time frames, adapting to varying trend speeds across assets and asset classes.
  • R
    The soft-capped Sharpe ratio loss improves generalization and reduces overfitting compared to standard Sharpe ratio optimization.
  • R
    Performance remains robust after accounting for transaction costs, indicating practical applicability.
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