Higher-Order Asset Pricing Factors via Forward Selection Fama-MacBeth Regression

—

Higher-Order Asset Pricing Factors via Forward Selection Fama-MacBeth Regression

Nicola Borri
Denis Chetverikov
Yukun Liu
Aleh Tsyvinski
Published on 3/30/2025
Equities
Stocks
United States (US)
Factor investing
Factor allocation
Machine learning
Asset class picking
Stock picking

This paper introduces a forward selection Fama-MacBeth (FS-FMB) procedure to identify higher-order terms and interactions of common linear factors that are priced in the cross-section of equity returns. Starting from six widely used factors (Fama-French 5 factors plus momentum), the method selects a small set of 7 higher-order factors (up to degree 3) from 57 candidates. The selected model substantially improves pricing performance, raising the adjusted cross-sectional R² from 31.2% (linear model) to 59%, and renders the intercept alpha insignificant. Moreover, it explains a large portion of the factor zoo: only 7 out of 148 zoo factors remain significant after controlling for the higher-order factors. The paper provides theoretical foundations for the FS-FMB estimator, including consistency and a debiasing procedure for inference. Out-of-sample tests confirm the model's robustness, and economic analysis via quantile regressions reveals that the higher-order factors capture non-linear exposure to macroeconomic tail risks, particularly financial intermediary distress, especially during recessions. Overall, the findings suggest that the pricing power of many zoo factors may stem from their exposure to higher-order manifestations of a few common factors.

Highlights

  • 1Develops a forward selection Fama-MacBeth (FS-FMB) procedure to select and rank higher-order terms and interactions of common linear factors in the stochastic discount factor.
  • 2Shows that a small set of higher-order factors (e.g., 7 terms from 6 base factors) substantially improves cross-sectional pricing, with adjusted R² increasing from 31.2% to 59%.
  • 3Demonstrates that the selected higher-order model explains a large fraction of the factor zoo, leaving only 7 out of 148 zoo factors significant at the 5% level.
  • 4Provides theoretical guarantees for the FS-FMB estimator, including rate of convergence and a debiasing method for inference.
  • 5Links higher-order factors to macroeconomic tail risks, particularly financial intermediary distress, via quantile regressions.

Methods

  • M
    Forward selection Fama-MacBeth (FS-FMB) regression: iteratively selects factors maximizing cross-sectional R² in the second-pass regression.
  • M
    Debiased estimation: expands the selected set to include factors with correlated covariances to reduce omitted variable bias.
  • M
    Quantile regressions: analyze sensitivity of higher-order factors to macroeconomic variables in extreme states.
  • M
    Out-of-sample tests: evaluate performance in both asset space (training on subset of assets) and time series (splitting sample).

Results

  • R
    The FS-FMB procedure selects 7 higher-order factors from 57 candidates (up to degree 3), including 2 second-order terms and 5 interactions.
  • R
    The higher-order factor model achieves an adjusted cross-sectional R² of 59%, compared to 31.2% for the linear FF5M model, with an insignificant intercept alpha.
  • R
    Only 7 out of 148 zoo factors remain significant at the 5% level after controlling for the higher-order model.
  • R
    Out-of-sample R² is significantly larger than benchmark linear models (CAPM, FF3, FF5, FF5M) in both asset-space and time-series tests.
  • R
    Higher-order factors exhibit strong correlations with macroeconomic tail risks, especially during recessions, with pseudo-R² up to 70% for market squared at the 90th percentile.
0/5

Analyze Paper

Generate insights from "Higher-Order Asset Pricing Factors via Forward Selection Fam...".

Suggested Actions