Neural Network for CVA: Learning Future Values

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Neural Network for CVA: Learning Future Values

Jian-Huang She
Dan Grecu
Published on 11/21/2018
Derivatives
Swaps
FX
Machine learning
Deep learning
Risk management

This paper presents a deep learning approach to compute Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) and Debit Valuation Adjustment (DVA) by modeling future portfolio values using neural networks. The key idea is to parameterize the derivatives of the discounted future value with respect to risk factors (deltas) as neural networks at each time step. These networks are trained via backward stochastic differential equations (BSDE) and optimization (Adam) to satisfy boundary conditions (e.g., zero at maturity). The method avoids the need for hand-picked basis functions used in traditional American Monte Carlo (AMC) methods.

The authors apply the framework to two products: a Bermudan swaption under a Hull-White one-factor model and a Mark-to-Market cross-currency swap under a multi-factor model with interest rate and FX risk. For the swaption, the neural network learns a future value function that resembles a Bachelier option price, with EPE decreasing over time and vanishing after exercise. For the cross-currency swap, the method reproduces expected exposures that agree with proxy methods and captures the impact of volatility parameters. The results demonstrate that neural networks can effectively approximate high-dimensional, nonlinear future value functions, offering a flexible and accurate tool for XVA calculations.

Highlights

  • 1Proposes a neural network framework to model future values for CVA/DVA calculations, avoiding the need for predefined basis functions.
  • 2Demonstrates the method on Bermudan swaptions and Mark-to-Market cross-currency swaps, obtaining expected positive/negative exposures.
  • 3Shows that the learned future value functions converge to smooth, interpretable forms (e.g., Bachelier-type for swaptions).
  • 4Provides a systematic algorithm for exposure calculation using backward induction and neural network parameterization of deltas.

Methods

  • M
    Neural network parameterization of future value deltas (∂V/∂X_i) at each time step, trained via backward stochastic differential equations (BSDE).
  • M
    Adam optimization algorithm to minimize a loss function based on terminal or initial condition deviations.
  • M
    Hull-White one-factor model for Bermudan swaption and a multi-factor model (interest rates + FX) for cross-currency swaps.

Results

  • R
    For Bermudan swaptions, EPE decreases over time with jumps at exercise dates; ENE is zero; the future value function converges to a Bachelier-type option price.
  • R
    For MtM cross-currency swaps, EPE/ENE profiles match proxy methods and show sensitivity to volatility parameters.
  • R
    The neural network training converges within about 500 steps for the swaption case, producing smooth future value functions.
  • R
    The learned future value for swaptions can be fitted to a Bachelier formula, suggesting potential improvements for American Monte Carlo basis selection.
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