HIST: A Graph-based Framework for Stock Trend Forecasting via Mining Concept-Oriented Shared Information

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HIST: A Graph-based Framework for Stock Trend Forecasting via Mining Concept-Oriented Shared Information

Wentao Xu
Weiqing Liu
Lewen Wang
Yingce Xia
Jiang Bian
Jian Yin
Tie-Yan Liu
Published on 10/26/2021
Stocks
Machine learning
Stock picking
Momentum in stocks

The paper presents HIST (a graph-based framework for stock trend forecasting via mining concept-oriented shared information), which addresses limitations of prior work that assumes stationary stock-concept relations and ignores hidden concepts. HIST constructs a stock-concept bipartite graph to learn dynamic representations of predefined concepts by aggregating stock information with market-cap weights and correcting representations via cosine similarity to all stocks. It then extracts hidden concepts using a residual-based algorithm: after removing predefined concept effects via a doubly residual architecture, it initializes hidden concepts from stock embeddings, connects each stock to its most similar hidden concept, and aggregates information to form hidden concept representations. Finally, individual stock information is extracted by further filtering shared information. The three types of information are combined via a feed-forward network for prediction. Experiments on real-world stock data show that HIST outperforms baselines (e.g., LSTM, GCN, HATS) in forecasting accuracy and investment returns. Ablation studies validate the importance of each component, and visualization of hidden concepts demonstrates their practical relevance, such as capturing pandemic-related stocks. The framework effectively leverages dynamic shared information from both predefined and hidden concepts to improve stock trend forecasting.

Highlights

  • 1Proposes HIST, a graph-based framework that mines both predefined and hidden concept-oriented shared information for stock trend forecasting.
  • 2Introduces a dynamic stock-concept bipartite graph to capture time-varying relevance between stocks and concepts.
  • 3Develops a doubly residual architecture to sequentially extract shared information from predefined concepts, hidden concepts, and individual stock information.
  • 4Discovers hidden concepts via a simple graph algorithm that groups stocks based on residual information after removing predefined concept effects.
  • 5Achieves superior performance in stock trend forecasting and investment simulation on real-world data compared to baselines.

Methods

  • M
    Stock-concept bipartite graph with dynamic concept representation learning using market-cap-weighted aggregation and cosine similarity-based correction.
  • M
    Hidden concept extraction via residual-based graph algorithm: initializing hidden concepts from stock embeddings, connecting stocks to most similar hidden concepts, and aggregating information.
  • M
    Doubly residual architecture with three modules (predefined concepts, hidden concepts, individual) connected via backcast and forecast residual branches.
  • M
    Attention mechanism for aggregating concept information to stocks based on learned importance weights.

Results

  • R
    HIST outperforms baselines (including LSTM, GCN, HATS) in stock trend forecasting across metrics like MSE, MAE, and accuracy.
  • R
    Investment simulation using a simple trading strategy shows HIST achieves higher cumulative returns than all baselines.
  • R
    Ablation studies confirm the contribution of each module: predefined concepts, hidden concepts, and individual information all improve performance.
  • R
    Visualization of mined hidden concepts reveals meaningful clusters (e.g., pandemic-related stocks) that align with real-world events.
  • R
    The dynamic concept representation and correction mechanism effectively capture time-varying stock-concept relevance.
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