Wealth dynamics in a sentiment-driven market
Wealth dynamics in a sentiment-driven market
This paper presents an agent-based stock market simulation where trading behavior is driven by exogenous sentiment processes rather than strategic optimization. The model incorporates three key sentiments: buy/sell dis-balance (ψ), volatility (σ with calm and jump states), and trading intensity (ρ). Agents draw their individual sentiments from Gaussian distributions centered on these common processes, influencing their order direction, limit price, and participation frequency. The stock exchange uses an order book with a matching engine to determine equilibrium prices.
Simulations with 1000 agents over up to 100,000 steps show that the stock price mean-reverts around the ratio of total cash to shares, with a slight downward bias from the absolute value in limit price draws. The wealth distribution of the top 25% agents converges to a Pareto distribution with exponent a ≈ 4, regardless of initial allocation (identical, uniform, normal, or Pareto). Introducing jump volatility (calm σ=0.05, breaking σ=0.2) produces fat-tailed log-returns, matching empirical features of stocks like TSLA and FB. A shift in buy/sell sentiment from neutral to bearish (ψ from 0 to -0.3) causes a rapid price decline of about 26%, while heterogeneous sentiments across subgroups lead to more gradual adjustments and differential wealth dynamics. The study highlights that sentiment-driven models can replicate key market phenomena without assuming rational expectations or strategic agents.
Highlights
- 1Introduces a sentiment-driven market model where agents' trading decisions are influenced by external sentiment processes (buy/sell dis-balance, volatility, and trading intensity).
- 2Demonstrates that regardless of initial wealth distribution, the wealth of the top 25% agents converges to a Pareto distribution with exponent around 4.
- 3Shows that incorporating jump volatility and buy/sell sentiment generates realistic stock price features, including fat-tailed returns and short-term trends.
- 4Explores wealth dynamics among subgroups with different sentiments, revealing how sentiment heterogeneity affects wealth distribution.
Methods
- MAgent-based simulation with a stock exchange using an order book and matching engine.
- MSentiment processes: buy/sell dis-balance (ψ), jump volatility (σ with calm and breaking states), and trading intensity (ρ) modeled as Poisson processes.
- MInitial wealth allocations: identical, uniform, normal, and Pareto distributions.
- MQuantile-quantile plots and Pareto exponent fitting to analyze return distributions and wealth inequality.
Results
- RStock price exhibits mean-reverting behavior around equilibrium price M/S, with a slight downward bias due to absolute value in limit price generation.
- RLog-returns are approximately normal in the absence of jump volatility, but become fat-tailed when jump volatility is introduced, resembling real stock data (e.g., TSLA, FB).
- RWealth distribution converges to a Pareto tail with exponent a ≈ 4 for all initial allocations, with the Pareto society showing higher volatility due to large orders from rich agents.
- RA shift in buy/sell sentiment (e.g., ψ = -0.3) causes a proportional drop in stock price (≈ 74%), and heterogeneous sentiments among subgroups lead to gradual price adjustments and differential wealth accumulation.
Analyze Paper
Generate insights from "Wealth dynamics in a sentiment-driven market".