A Markov model of a limit order book: thresholds, recurrence, and trading strategies
A Markov model of a limit order book: thresholds, recurrence, and trading strategies
This paper analyzes a tractable Markov model of a limit order book (LOB) driven by stochastic fluctuations between supply and demand from long-term investors. The model assumes Poisson arrivals of unit-sized bids and asks with independent prices, no cancellations, and immediate matching of compatible orders. The authors establish the existence of thresholds κ_b and κ_a such that bids below κ_b and asks above κ_a are never executed, while the interval (κ_b, κ_a) is recurrently emptied. Using fluid limits, they prove positive recurrence of binned (discretized) versions of the model, which justifies the derivation of limiting distributions for the highest bid and lowest ask. These distributions satisfy a system of differential equations derived from probability flux balance, and explicit solutions are given for the case of uniform arrival prices. The model is extended to include market orders and high-frequency trading strategies, such as market making, sniping, and mixtures thereof. The authors compute optimal strategies for a single trader and analyze Nash equilibria when multiple high-frequency traders compete. They find that competition among sniping strategies leads to a high rate of order cancellations, a feature observed in real markets. The paper also compares continuous-time trading with frequent batch auctions, showing that batch auctions slightly reduce profits for sniping traders. Overall, the model provides a mathematically rigorous foundation for understanding price formation and strategic trading in limit order books, with implications for market design.
Highlights
- 1Establishes existence of thresholds κ_b and κ_a for a Markovian limit order book model, below/above which orders are never executed.
- 2Derives limiting distributions for the highest bid and lowest ask, solving a system of differential equations.
- 3Uses fluid limits to prove positive recurrence of binned models, justifying steady-state analysis.
- 4Analyzes high-frequency trading strategies (market making, sniping, and mixtures) and Nash equilibria in continuous and batch auction markets.
- 5Shows that competition among sniping strategies leads to a high rate of order cancellations as a model prediction.
Methods
- MMarkov process modeling of limit order book with Poisson arrivals and price-dependent matching.
- MFluid limit analysis to establish recurrence properties of binned models.
- MOrdinary differential equations derived from probability flux balance for limiting distributions.
- MGame-theoretic analysis of Nash equilibria among high-frequency traders under continuous and batch auction mechanisms.
Results
- RThresholds κ_b and κ_a exist such that bids below κ_b and asks above κ_a are never executed; the interval (κ_b, κ_a) is recurrently emptied.
- RLimiting densities π_b and π_a for highest bid and lowest ask are supported on (κ_b, κ_a) and satisfy coupled integral equations.
- RFor uniform arrival prices on (0,1), thresholds are κ ≈ 0.218 and 1-κ, with explicit density π_b(x) = (1-κ)(1/x + log((1-x)/x)).
- RMarket orders can be included; a critical threshold w ≈ 0.278 determines when the book empties completely.
- ROptimal sniping strategy can outperform market making; mixed strategies dominate both. In batch auctions, competition among snipers yields a Nash equilibrium with slightly lower profits than continuous markets.
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