Decentralised Finance and Automated Market Making: Execution and Speculation
Decentralised Finance and Automated Market Making: Execution and Speculation
This paper studies optimal trading and statistical arbitrage in constant product markets (CPMs), the most common type of automated market maker (AMM) in decentralised finance. The authors first empirically show that execution costs in CPMs are accurately approximated by convexity costs, which are linear in trade size and depend on the pool depth and exchange rate. Using Uniswap v3 data, they confirm that convexity costs capture the curvature of the trading function. They then formulate three stochastic control models for a liquidity taker who trades in a CPM: (1) when exchange rates form in a centralised exchange (CEX), (2) when rates form in the DEX, and (3) when rates form in both venues with cointegration. The optimal strategies balance exchange rate risk and execution costs, and are characterised by semilinear PDEs. To overcome computational challenges, the authors propose a piecewise constant approximation of convexity costs that yields closed-form strategies and converges to the optimal continuous strategy. Out-of-sample tests on Uniswap v3 data from 2021–2023 show that the proposed liquidation strategy significantly outperforms TWAP and single-trade benchmarks, and that statistical arbitrage strategies exploiting CEX/DEX discrepancies are profitable. The work provides a rigorous framework for algorithmic trading in AMMs and highlights the importance of accounting for stochastic convexity costs.
Highlights
- 1First paper to solve optimal execution for liquidity takers in decentralized exchanges (DEXs) with automated market makers (AMMs).
- 2Empirically validates that convexity costs accurately approximate execution costs in constant product markets (CPMs) using Uniswap data.
- 3Develops three stochastic control models for optimal trading when rates form in a centralised exchange (CEX), DEX, or both.
- 4Proposes a computationally efficient piecewise constant convexity cost approximation that converges to the optimal continuous strategy.
- 5Demonstrates superior out-of-sample performance of the proposed strategies over TWAP and single-trade benchmarks for liquidation and statistical arbitrage.
Methods
- MStochastic optimal control in continuous time with convexity costs linear in trading speed.
- MEmpirical analysis of Uniswap v3 transaction data to estimate convexity costs and model parameters.
- MPiecewise constant approximation of stochastic convexity costs to derive closed-form strategies.
- MCointegration and lead-follow models for CEX/DEX rate dynamics.
Results
- RConvexity costs (Z^{3/2}/κ) accurately approximate unitary execution costs in CPMs, linear in trade size.
- ROptimal strategy consists of an inventory liquidation component and a speculative component exploiting CEX/DEX rate discrepancies.
- RPiecewise constant convexity cost approximation yields strategies that closely match the optimal continuous solution when mispricing is moderate.
- RLiquidation strategy outperforms TWAP and single-trade execution in out-of-sample tests on ETH/USDC and ETH/DAI pairs.
- RStatistical arbitrage opportunities exist in Uniswap when informed by Binance rates, with profitable execution.
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