MarketSenseAI 2.0: Enhancing Stock Analysis through LLM Agents
MarketSenseAI 2.0: Enhancing Stock Analysis through LLM Agents
MarketSenseAI 2.0 is an enhanced framework for holistic stock analysis that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to integrate financial news, historical prices, company fundamentals, and macroeconomic data. The paper introduces two key improvements: a Chain-of-Agents (CoA) approach for fundamental analysis that processes SEC filings and earnings call transcripts, and a Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) module for macroeconomic analysis that uses semantic chunking and Hypothetical Dense Embeddings (HyDE) to handle diverse institutional reports. These enhancements enable more accurate and context-aware investment signals.
Empirical evaluation on S&P 100 stocks over two years (2023-2024) shows MarketSenseAI achieving cumulative returns of 125.9% compared to the index return of 73.5%, while maintaining comparable risk profiles. Further validation on S&P 500 stocks during 2024 demonstrates scalability, delivering a 33.8% higher Sortino ratio than the market. The framework's modular architecture and transparent decision-making process make it suitable for both retail and institutional investors, offering a significant advancement in applying LLM technology to financial analysis.
Highlights
- 1Introduces a Chain-of-Agents (CoA) approach for refined fundamental analysis using SEC filings and earnings calls.
- 2Enhances macroeconomic analysis with a dedicated RAG module using semantic chunking and HyDE-based retrieval.
- 3Achieves 125.9% cumulative returns on S&P 100 stocks (2023-2024) vs. 73.5% for the index, with comparable risk.
- 4Demonstrates scalability on S&P 500 stocks in 2024, delivering a 33.8% higher Sortino ratio than the market.
- 5Provides transparent investment decisions with detailed explanations, enhancing user trust.
Methods
- MChain-of-Agents (CoA) for processing large financial documents (10-K, 10-Q, earnings call transcripts).
- MRetrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) with HyDE and semantic chunking for macroeconomic data.
- MMulti-agent architecture with five specialized LLM agents (News, Fundamentals, Dynamics, Macroeconomic, Signal).
- MSentiment analysis using FinBERT to evaluate the impact of qualitative data on fundamental analysis.
Results
- RMarketSenseAI achieved cumulative returns of 125.9% on S&P 100 stocks (2023-2024) vs. 73.5% for the S&P 100 index.
- ROn S&P 500 stocks in 2024, the framework delivered a 33.8% higher Sortino ratio than the market.
- RIncorporating SEC filings and earnings calls moderated sentiment (mean 0.31 vs. 0.36) and changed ~5% of investment signals.
- RHyDE and Optimized retrieval methods outperformed Simple retrieval in answer relevancy and faithfulness for macroeconomic queries.
- RThe system maintained comparable risk profiles (volatility, max drawdown) to benchmark indices while generating excess returns.
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