Stochastic simulation framework for the Limit Order Book using liquidity motivated agents

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Stochastic simulation framework for the Limit Order Book using liquidity motivated agents

Efstathios Panayi
Gareth Peters
Published on 1/11/2015
Equities
High frequency trading
Machine learning

This paper presents a novel stochastic agent-based model for limit order books (LOBs) that bridges the gap between pure agent-based and pure stochastic approaches. The model features two types of liquidity-motivated agents: liquidity providers (market makers) who submit and cancel limit orders, and liquidity demanders who place market orders. The agents' activities are modeled using multivariate skew-t distributions to capture heavy tails, skewness, and non-linear dependencies across different LOB levels and event types. The model is calibrated to high-frequency Level 2 data from Chi-X using a combination of indirect inference and multi-objective optimization, allowing it to replicate both price and volume dynamics. The authors demonstrate the model's practical utility by simulating the impact of a regulatory quote-to-trade ratio, finding that such a measure can reduce extreme intra-day volatility. This framework provides a rigorous tool for testing exchange regulations and informing trading strategies, with the flexibility to incorporate additional agent behaviors or market rules.

Highlights

  • 1Develops a hybrid agent-based and stochastic model for limit order books with liquidity-motivated agents.
  • 2Introduces a novel calibration method combining indirect inference and multi-objective optimization.
  • 3Models non-linear dependencies between order types and LOB levels using multivariate skew-t distributions.
  • 4Demonstrates practical application by simulating the impact of a quote-to-trade ratio regulation on intra-day volatility.

Methods

  • M
    Stochastic agent-based model with liquidity providers and demanders, using multivariate skew-t distributions for intensity processes.
  • M
    Calibration via indirect inference combined with multi-objective optimization to match price and volume dynamics.
  • M
    Simulation framework processing limit orders, cancellations, and market orders in discrete time intervals.

Results

  • R
    The model captures key empirical features of LOB dynamics, including price evolution, liquidity, and volume processes.
  • R
    Calibration to Chi-X Level 2 data shows good fit to intra-day price and volume behaviors.
  • R
    Simulated quote-to-trade ratio regulation effectively limits extreme intra-day volatility.
  • R
    The framework enables testing of exchange regulations and brokerage decisions.
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